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There were two explosions on buses in Kun Ming (??). The news hit NYT first but apparently has been on the news allover China.

Two thoughts go in parallel:

What the hell is going on in China? Is the explosion of riots in periphery harbinger of greater turmoil to come? As Ming Pao (??) suggests,

??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????10 ???????2????55???????????????????????????????????????????????????

What is striking is that almost all of those riots happened at political/geographical periphery, with similar grievances and comparable destructive energy. But on the other end, at the center, all is too rosy: Taiwan seems never closer to returning than ever, the Olympics seems destined to be one of the most elaborate shows in Chinese history.

Is this a pattern–a bloating and self-delusional center with a deteriorating periphery–that has been repeated before? This is not a rhetorical question, but a genuine one. In the translation I did for Lavely and R. Bin Wong, they talked about how the Tai Ping Tian Guo was the result of collapsing local administrative capacities. But I wondered what the royal court looked like then? Was it also full of pump and circumstances?

The other thought:

What the hell is going on with Chinese media? Is there a quiet “????“ going on? Listen to this:

20???6?20???????????????????????????????????“??????????”?????“??????????????????”??????

???????????“???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????”

????“3·14?????”???????????????“??”???????????????

“6·28”???????????????????????????
?????????????1??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

And this article is from a magazine (????) that is the “trade journal” of the official media and is, I believe, under direct central control. Read closely, the logic is contorted–it is a stretch to suggest “??????????????????????????“. What is “obvious” to me is that this article is trying to construct a narrative and set a tone.

Is this a sign that some insiders are anxiously but cautiously trying to keep alive the opening after ??? I can’t help but wonder at what level this article is sanctioned? The fact that there was poor/old way of reporting of the 3.14 Tibetan riots suggests the old guards are still out there. Do they not smell out the wickedness in this article? Who in the Central Committee are they going to resort to? How are they going to fight back? Will this fight stay inside the party or spill out to the commercial media as well? Are there going to be a widespread rectification campaign after the Olympics–or even earlier?

I have been following what’s happening in ?? for several days. It is fascinating for the following reasons:
1. What makes a story explosive?
2. How efficient and effective the Net police is
3. The common damage control technique by the Chinese government

The most comprehensive and the closest to the event can be found here: http://xinwenshe.blogspot.com/ (see postings around 6.28.2008 and several days later, including a video posting)

To be explosive, a story has to have an innocent victim, an evil perpetrator, and an open ending. In this case, the victims are innocent or at least powerless: the rape-murder victim, her uncle and mother. The perpetrators are the police and street thugs. And an open ending is clearly an invitation for action.

The Net police is VERY efficient: two days later, there is scant trace left on the Chinese Net. In fact, when I used Baidu.com, it has suggested several keywords, such as: ????, ????, ??????, ????6.28??, ?????, etc. Many of the posting titles are listed there. However, after 14 random clicks on those with negative titles, only three are left. One (http://www.dongkou.com/bbs/viewthread.php?tid=11486) had the original posting deleted but nasty comments remained. Isn’t this interesting?

The damage control seems to be:
1. Physical isolation: the roads cut off, news media shut out and a surge of police force
2. Synchronizing message on the cause: it is a few bad guys (??????) with a large “confused” mob (???????)
3. Stick to the message: today, only one message left, such as: http://news.xinhuanet.com/politics/2008-07/01/content_8468856.htm

So far, I believe the government has succeeded in putting a lid on the event.

Didn’t want to do much but saw this poster and have to mark it down:

Really got a kick out of it!! By the way, the map is a real one, circa 1830s. Go Absolut!

I saw this right after seeing reports of the Olympic torch was extinguished three times in Paris amidst violent protests. Immediately I switched to Chinese news sites and saw almost nothing of it being reported.

This is totally fascinating because I’d think the development is a good thing for the Chinese government yet it chooses not to report it. Why is that?

Although in my paper, I am adopting Susan’s line to say it is useless to say if the state is strong or weak, by conventional standards, I’d say the government is very weak. It has such a tenuous hold on public opinion and national narrative, it chooses to put down anything that may generate excitement.

With regard to Tibet, in a “Absolut World”, the map should have been different. But there is little argument today what the map is. I am sure the Tibetans’ anger is legitimate. But they have to adjust their expectation: if Taiwan can’t become independent, where the Chinese government didn’t have any control for 60 years, Tibet has little hope to be independent either. For those who use East Timor or Kosovo as example, they really have to ask themselves whether those are exceptions or the rule.

Instead, the question of independence is now a wedge issue that split the Tibetans. If there is anything I want to tell them, that is, “don’t listen to the NGOs or Human Rights activists!” They can advocate indepedence because they don’t have to live with China. They can make all kinds of noise but they seldom deliver results. Most importantly, you have to have a unified front and you have to control the message.

Also, someone (Robbie Barnett?) brought up a good point: don’t forget the Chinese public in the whole issue. Dalai’s best hope is to have the Chinese public on his side. It was a improbably proposition. The way things are going, it looks like this is becoming increasingly impossible.

Rumor had it that Beijing taxi drivers would stage a one-day strike on the Party’s Birthday 7/1. Today I asked a taxi driver again about this, he said the whole affair is onhold right now: the city government agreed to continue the fuel subsidy till further notice.

The immediate cause was the rising fuel price and whether the city government should subsidize the drivers. The real tension has been brewing for a long time. Earlier in the 90s, the city government (an extended arm of the central government) allowed individuals to apply for taxi licenses in order to encourage alternative transportation. It was a boom time for the drivers and thousands of taxi companies emerged as a result.

Later, the city government forced consolidation and stopped issuing new licenses. The surviving taxi companies, now officially sanctioned, had a freehand in running things. Other than 1000 or so remaining “sole properiators”, almost all taxi drivers now are employees of the 200 taxi companies. Unless they have their own vehicles (not common), they have to pay 4000-5000 RMBY per month to their employers, which, depending on who you ask, may count for 2/3 or 5/6 of their income. And they have to pay their own health insurances too. A typical rentier operation anyway.

Some daring taxi drivers sued the city agency responsible for taxi administration for, in essence, unfair practice. They wanted a free-market system where the drivers could again become “sole properiators”. The courts rejected their claims.

After fuel prices rose recently, the drivers were subsidized by the city government. But now the city decided to cut off the subsidy but to increase the taxi fare instead. The drivers were outraged since they believed the increased fair would hurt their business while they still had to pay the same rent. There was a semi-organized compaign to stage a strike on July 1st. I asked a driver how the campaign was carried out. He said some of the them would slap posters on light poles at street corners frequented by taxi drivers. The compaign had to remain underground, or, as he put it, you might as well sat in home waiting for the police to come and get you.

Now the city agency decided to postpone the cutoff to an unspecified “future date”. The taxi drivers are waiting for the next round of confrontation. The city agency is also conducting a survey of drivers’ income and working hours. If you believe what the drivers tell you, both are horrendous.

Some news articles:
????150?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????…

… ??????????????????????10???????????13????… ??????300????????????13??????305??????266??????????186????300?????80?????13???????????39????12?20???????????????… ??????????????14??????????427???????252????168????????????… ?????????????????????????????????????????????????????6?7?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????.

????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????“?????”?

??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????“??????????????????????????????????????”????????????

??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????“???”?????????????????“???”????????????????????????????????????????????????????(I have heard that the taxi companies are hiring drivers from rural areas. The new drivers now have to pay for the basic insurance in exchange for lowered rent)

… ??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

About the “black cars” :
Cars without taxi license. Most drivers are former employees. They have a territorial agreement with the legit drivers (you don’t find them waiting together). Beijing has had a couple of campains to eradicate “the black cars” but the result is mixed. I have met someone who switched back and forth a couple of times. The number of black cars seems to reflect the equilibrium b/w legit and illegit+access to cops.

“??????????????????????????????100????????????????????????????????????”???????????????????“?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????”

???????1992???????????????????????1.62??????????1994??4.9????????????????????????1994???????????????1996????????????“????”?????(????)??????????(8??6?)???????

??????????????????1000?????????????200???“?200??????????????????????????????????????????????”

???????????????????????????????????????“??????????????”

??????????????????????????????????????????????“1994??1996????????7?????????13??14????????????????????????????????????????????1000?????????1998???????????????????????????????????????3????????3?????????????????????”(If this is true, it got be the most outrageous aspect of them all).

Read an summary article on China Youth Daily: ?????“??”

5?9???????????????????????????????????????????????“??1?68????????????????????????????????”?

???????????????????“??”????“??”????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????……??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

5?9??????????????????????????????????????????????????

5?12??????????????????“????”????????????????????????????????????????“???????”?????????

???????????????????“???”??????????????????4????????????????????????70???????????10????????????

??????????????????????????????????????????

–Another related article about ?????????????????? or her alleged proposal to ??????????????

–Don’t know what to make of this. Without a mature journalism industry, Net is breeding a monster. Is it a temporary thing?

Heard an interesting interview on Diane Rehm show of the author Barry Werth. He wrote a book that builds an very interesting narrative that retraces today’s conservative movement back to the Watergate days. Fascinating and very engaging. Reminded me of another book, Before the Storm.

The book is “31 Days : The Crisis That Gave Us the Government We Have Today”

Some interesting things:
1. Rummy ordered a review of WMD gap b/w the U.S. and the Soviets. The review claimed that the USSR spent almost all GDP on weapons and were on track to dominate in space, and so on. The project was headed by Wolfowitz and Feith.
2. Migdal mentioned that Cheney and Rummy weren’t like what they used to be (see also NYKr’s piece on Scowcroft, on not recognizing the old Cheney). This may not be the case.
3. Cheney’s provocative stance on the power of the president may be heavily influenced by his experience during the 31 days.
4. How subtle the promise of pardon was communicated to Alexander Haig (”do what you have to do”). Even politician at critical juncture with so much at stake chose to use ambiguity. Is ambiguity the norm or the exception in public communication?
5. Extension: censorship, ambiguity, Lisa Wadeen

China’s Biggest Gamble
Can it have capitalism without democracy? A prediction.
By Henry Blodget
(Summary: we can only tell when China goes bust)

The filter at Berkman Center
Wu Hao case,

A sample reactions from China on Google censorship by BBC
(All Chinese people know that their expression is censored. We don’t need people outside continually reminding us of this. … there are so many things that Chinese people are doing. … My blog talks about internet developments and entrepreneurial activities…)

China Political Culture: Popular Protest and Political Culture in Modern China
edited by Jeffrey N. Wasserstrom and Elizabeth J. Perry
Requested.

Online entry: Political Economy:
Seymour Martin Lipset, turned from explanations of political values based on social class to those based on history and culture, which, he argued, displayed consistency throughout history. American political scientist Robert Putnam followed in this Tocquevillian tradition.

Negotiating the State: good summary of Chinese NGO

A summary article by Reuters.

Yahoo was accused of providing electronic records to Chinese authorities that led to an eight-year prison term for Li Zhi for subversion in 2003 and of helping to identify Shi Tao, who was accused of leaking state secrets abroad and jailed last year for 10 years.

From Reuters on 5/6/2005 China sees 60 million bloggers by year’s end

The number of Chinese bloggers is expected to hit 60 million by the end of this year, Xinhua said, quoting a report on China’s media industry by the prestigious Tsinghua University.

The university report forecast the number of bloggers in China would hit 100 million by 2007.

A recent report by the Internet Society of China showed nine percent of bloggers write every day, 29 percent write once to three times a week, while 35 percent write four to six times a week, Xinhua said.

Another interesting article from NYT. Looks like Mr. French is ready to write a book about censorship in China.

Some quotes:
A classmate, Tang Guochao, agreed. “A bulletin board is like a family, and in a family, I want my room to be clean and well-lighted, without dirty or dangerous things in it.”

In the past, China’s efforts to control the Internet have often foundered in the face of the curiosity and inventiveness of Web surfers, who constantly find ingenious ways to find content that is banned and to discuss controversial topics.

(Here is the delima, even the free press in the West does not want to reveal publicly how to access this underground internet, how does it make any difference to a public that is closely monitored?)